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Revised Natural History Model for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

Cox-model risk score estimating survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Revised Natural History Model for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis
Age
years
Total bilirubin
mg/dL
AST (aspartate aminotransferase)
U/L
Serum albumin
History of variceal bleeding
Complete the fields above to see the result.

When to use

  • Estimating survival in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis using routinely available variables, without requiring liver biopsy.

Formula

R = 0.03 x age(years) + 0.54 x ln(bilirubin, mg/dL) + 0.54 x ln(AST, U/L) + 1.24 x variceal bleeding(0/1) - 0.84 x albumin(g/dL).

Pearls and pitfalls

  • Developed by Cox proportional-hazards analysis in 405 PSC patients across 5 centres and validated in an independent cohort of 124 patients; obviates the need for liver biopsy used by the original 1989 Mayo model.

References

  1. Kim WR, et al. Mayo Clin Proc. 2000;75(7):688-94.