The Cardiovascular
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Kidney Failure Risk Calculator (KFRE)

Predicts 2- and 5-year risk of treated kidney failure in CKD stage 3-5.

Kidney Failure Risk Calculator (KFRE)
Age
years
Sex
eGFR
Estimated glomerular filtration rate (any standard creatinine-based equation).
mL/min/1.73 m²
Urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR)
Enter mg/g; multiply mg/mmol by 8.84 to convert.
mg/g
Complete the fields above to see the result.

When to use

  • Estimating the probability that an adult with CKD stage 3-5 (eGFR 10-59) will progress to treated kidney failure within 2 or 5 years.
  • Informing timing of nephrology referral, vascular access planning, or transplant work-up.

Formula

4-variable KFRE: L = -0.2201x(age/10 - 7.036) + 0.2467x(male - 0.5642) - 0.5567x(eGFR/5 - 7.222) + 0.4510x(ln(ACR mg/g) - 5.137). 2-year risk = 1 - 0.9832^exp(L); 5-year risk = 1 - 0.9365^exp(L).

Pearls and pitfalls

  • Derived and validated in patients referred to nephrology with CKD stages 3-5 (eGFR 10-59 mL/min/1.73 m²); accuracy outside this range or in transplant recipients is less established.
  • A related 8-variable model adds serum calcium, phosphate, bicarbonate and albumin for marginally better discrimination but requires more inputs.
  • Many guidelines suggest nephrology referral once 5-year risk exceeds roughly 3-5%, and multidisciplinary dialysis/transplant planning once it approaches 40%.

References

  1. Tangri N, Stevens LA, Griffith J, et al. JAMA. 2011;305(15):1553-9.
  2. Tangri N, Grams ME, Levey AS, et al. JAMA. 2016;315(2):164-74 (multinational validation).